[Navigating the Complexities of International Conflict]
War is an intense armed conflict between governments, states, paramilitary groups, tribes, militias, or other entities. Wars are typically fought by soldiers or mercenaries, who are hired to fight on behalf of another country. Every war, when examined closely, can be traced back to a misunderstanding.
Misjudgments between individuals, groups, and states are inevitable, given that reasons and values are not always mutually shared or agreed upon.However, not every misunderstanding leads to war. Prolonged confusion, errors, misconceptions, misinterpretations, and mistakes can escalate into a crisis. The Ukraine-Russia war, ongoing for over two years, has had a devastating impact on the global economy. Despite this, the world and various countries have adapted their operations to accommodate the current national adversities, integrating them into their policies and political implementations as an unfortunate norm.
IMPACT IN AFRICAN ECONOMY
It’s been over two years since Russia invaded Ukraine, sending shockwaves around the world. While the fighting remains localised to Eastern Europe, its economic aftershocks continue to reverberate across Africa.
According to report from ODI.RG; Russia and Ukraine were major suppliers of staples like wheat, fertilisers, and fuel to many African countries. The war has severely disrupted these supply chains, fuelling a devastating surge in food and fuel prices that has disproportionately hit the continent’s most vulnerable populations. The numbers are staggering.
In Kenya and Egypt, for example, Russian and Ukrainian wheat once accounted for as much as 85% and 67% of imports respectively. Fertiliser, vital for agriculture, has also become scarce and expensive. Egypt, Ethiopia, Morocco, Senegal, and South Africa sourced 11%–41% of their fertiliser imports from Russia and Ukraine. As a result, food prices have soared, pushing millions into food insecurity.
Furthermore, the war's impact has come at a time when Africa was still reeling from economic setbacks caused by COVID-19. 18 million people were added to the already 546 million Africans living in poverty. A staggering 22% of the population faces dangerous levels of food insecurity. Predicted by survey.
According to most estimates, every day of the war in Ukraine costs Russia $500 million to $1 billion. Russia faced a record shortage of factory workers in July 2023, with more than 43% of industrial enterprises facing a shortage, up from 35% in April.
OUTLOOK
Two years after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the country's war of aggression shows no immediate signs of ending, even if possible exit scenarios have been discussed. Ukraine is reported to be supported by its Western allies, but some indications of 'war fatigue' are noticeable both in Europe (for instance in its usually strong ally Poland in the context of its autumn 2023 elections, and in the United States, where the ousting of House speaker Kevin McCarthy and the looming 2024 elections have led to uncertainty around aid delivery). On the Russian side, the country has forged closer ties with countries such as Iran and North Korea.
EFFECT ON NIGERIA
The war in Ukraine is a stark reminder of the interconnectedness of our world. While the conflict may seem distant to some, its economic consequences have a profound impact on the lives of millions of Africans. Left unaddressed, these ripple effects risk undermining development gains and setting the continent back for years to come.
According to a report from BusinessDay which dates back to Dec 27, 2023; The Russia-Ukraine war, on its earlier phase, did take a toll on the Nigerian economy in many ways. The conflict caused disruptions to the global supply chains as sanctions have affected the global market, sending oil prices to as high as $130 per barrel. Its spillover effects include the surge in diesel price in Nigeria and the disruption in petrol supply.
Here are five major effects of the Russia-Ukraine war in Nigeria.
Durum wheat -The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine brought about a decline in the importation of durum wheat importation into Nigeria, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Nigeria imported durum wheat worth N753.59 billion in nine months (January to September), down from N898.19 billion in the corresponding period of 2021.
Oil price rally- Oil prices were rising globally prior to the full escalation of the war. However, when Russia attacked Ukraine, the price of crude oil in the global market skyrocketed from around $76 per barrel at the start of January 2022 to over $130 per barrel in March. Nigeria relies on crude oil for most of its foreign exchange and two-thirds of government revenue. The oil price rally meant an increase in crude export revenues for the country but this was offset by higher petrol subsidy cost incurred by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company.
Since the war, its price has risen from about N288 per litre in January to over N800 in December to N1020 of recent. The spike in diesel prices is affecting businesses in terms of operations and sales, especially for manufacturers and banks. Many banks had to issue notices stating that some of their branches would close by 2 pm due to diesel costs.
Fertiliser-Findings showed the prices of fertiliser have been climbing rapidly as the war created a supply shock. BusinessDay had reported in April that the Russia-Ukraine war had trapped four inbound vessels containing over 70,000 metric tons of potash – a key raw material input for producing NPK, putting food security in Africa’s most populous nation at risk.
Since the war started, prices for fertiliser raw materials that make up crop nutrients – ammonia, nitrogen, potash, urea, phosphates, sulphates, and nitrates – have risen by 30 percent.
The average price of a 50kg bag of NPK, a critical type of fertiliser mainly used by smallholder farmers, has surged by 181.3 percent to N22,500 from N8,000 last year, according to BusinessDay findings.
OVERVIEW TO THE CAUSE OF THE WAR
While it may be over two years, it is ideal to bring to mind the cause of this war that has lingered for long. The bone of contention has been Ukraine’s application for membership with NATO, with Russia expressing concerns that since they share borders with Ukraine, and such an alliance is tantamount to the encroachment of Russia’s area of political influence as Eastern European countries join NATO. Russia’s demand is for Ukraine never to be allowed to join NATO as it will bring NATO’s influence and presence too close to its backyard.
Russia has demanded that the West gives a legally binding guarantee that NATO will not hold any military activity in Eastern Europe and Ukraine. Despite these demands, Ukraine has been making efforts to speed up the process for admission into NATO based on lessons from how Russia annexed Crimea in 2014. Tensions between the two former republics have been there for a long time. The tension escalated in January 2021 when the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky urged the US president, Joe Biden, for Ukraine to join the NATO. This request angered Russia and the country started sending troops near Ukrainian border. Using Belarus as a conduit, the military invasion and subsequent war on Ukraine was evident (Chandler, 2022). On the back of these, Russia launched a military operation in Ukraine on Thursday, February 24, 2022, with explosions heard across the country, followed by a "full- scale invasion". Despite the devastating effect of this war on Ukraine, Russia through its media has been projecting that it is merely a 'special military operation’.
WHAT WORLD LEADERS ARE SAYING
The ongoing war has got a number of world leaders express their displeasure. Some of the highlight of speeches about Ukraine and Russia’s war against it by world leaders during the first day of the UN General Assembly in New York on Sept. 24 are:
(1)-UN Secretary-General António Guterres – Energy and human rights concerns. The Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) says that intense fighting continues to impact civilians and cause damage to energy infrastructure across Ukraine. (2)-Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva – ‘War extending without any prospect of peace’
Lula said that conflicts are growing worldwide and, “with regret” that the war in Ukraine continues, before adding that though Brazil condemns Russia’s invasion, he believed neither Kyiv nor Moscow “will be able to achieve all their objectives through military means.” (3)-US President Joe Biden – ‘Ensure the survival of Ukraine as a free nation’
Biden reiterated his support for Ukraine during his last speech as the US president at the UN General Assembly. He said the US “defended the UN Charter” to “ensure the survival of Ukraine.” He said the US “has made a commitment to the principles of the UN Charter to stand up against aggression when Russia invaded Ukraine,” adding that instead of standing by idly, he and US Vice President Kamala Harris “understood that that was an assault on everything this institution was supposed to stand for.” (4)-Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan – ‘Space for diplomacy is shrinking’ Erdoğan said Turkey continues to support “diplomacy and dialogue” to “ensure territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine” without further elaboration in his speech.
(5)-South African President Cyril Ramaphosa – ‘We exert every effort to bring peace’ Ramaphosa mentioned Ukraine in passing while calling for fellow member states to bring peace to conflicts worldwide. After that, he called for a more representative and inclusive Security Council, saying that Africa and its 1.4 billion people remain excluded from its key decision-making structures. (6)-Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni – ‘No one is above the law’ Meloni said Ukraine has a right to defend itself and that Russia’s invasion has had a domino effect, with its “destabilizing effects” spreading well beyond Ukraine’s borders. She likened Russia’s invasion to a “wound to the international framework founded on rules” and that the spilled-over effects could “ignite” other crises worldwide. Meloni also questioned Russia’s status as a permanent member of the Security Council and called on the world to support Ukraine’s right to defend its borders, sovereignty and freedom. “No one is above the law,” she added.
VOLODYMYR ZELENSKY STATEMENT
This however, Ukraine’s president has urged global leaders to stand with his country and not seek “a lull” instead of a “real, just peace” more than two years into Russia’s war.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy delivered the message during an address to the UN General Assembly in New York Wednesday 25th, rallying support for his 2022 “peace formula” that demands the expulsion of Russian forces from Ukraine and justice for war crimes.
“Any parallel or alternative attempts to seek peace are, in fact, efforts to achieve a lull instead of an end to the war,” Zelenskyy told the UN body more than 31 months into the blistering war that has claimed hundreds of thousands of casualties.
On Friday 27th, representatives of 20 UN states are set to discuss a six-point peace plan drafted by China and Brazil as an alternative to Zelenskyy’s proposal. The plan calls for non-escalation, a boost in humanitarian assistance, efforts to stop nuclear proliferation and an international conference backed by both Russia and Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said the war with Russia could end sooner than some people think. "I think that we are closer to peace than we think," he told US broadcaster ABC News.
He added that Ukraine could push Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the conflict, but only if Kyiv was coming from a "strong position" - once again calling on his Western allies to strengthen the Ukrainian army.
CONCLUSION
War, as blistering and harmful it may cause to both parties it also endangers others who are by any means connected or are in any business affiliation with the parties. Africa has received the largest blow since the Russia -Ukraine war. The inter-dependence of countries brought about vulnerabilities especially for a country like Nigeria that is heavily reliant on the importation of virtually everything that the citizens consume. The Russia-Ukraine war has affected virtually the world. The general inflation in countries is partly caused by the ongoing European hegemonic struggle in Ukraine. This is because, in addition to skyrocketing increase in the prices of grains and staple food, the oil and gas prices strongly affects price of other goods and services.
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